The Triumph of Complexity

Alan Greenspan's testimony to congress on Oct 23, 2008, has been amply dissected. Many people, including the congressional questioners, were downright hostile, and eager to place blame for the financial meltdown at Greenspan's feet. You can read tons of such analysis all over the web.

What struck me most listening to Greenspan was his humility, and honesty.  Many people would not make the admissions he made. That his lifelong philosophy was flawed, although he would admit to only partially flawed.

The statement that struck me most, and seems to have escaped most analysts, was his astounding admission that, "If all those extraordinarily capable people were unable to foresee the development of this critical problem ... we have to ask ourselves: Why is that? And the answer is that we're not smart enough as people.  We just cannot see events that far in advance". 

Now this is the man that had just finished talking about the Nobel prize being awarded for the discovery of pricing models. He has also talked about how competent and smart the economic modelers and forecasters at the Federal Reserve were. What he fundamentally said was that we were defeated by complexity. When the top minds in the financial world are "not smart enough", that is not lack of brain power, or education. It is the sheer scale of the complexity. This is a lesson the world better heed. Complexity can almost literally destroy us. Global complexity of the financial system is a topic that will be dealt with in the years to come by the best financial minds in the world, if we are to avoid a repeat of the tsunami that Greenspan thinks is a once in a hundred years event.

Complexity in our profession, system development and IT, can destroy systems, and destroy hopes of completing systems, and managing their development and operation.

A very conscious effort to slay the complexity monster, and a relentless focus on simplicity must be the concern of everyone in our profession. What Greenspan's testimony illustrates is that conquering complexity must at the forefront of all the managers of our economy, and our world.

Comments

[Dissertation Writing]

This post is also informative for me and all other readers...Thanks for sharing and I hope you will share some more with us.My pleasure to being here on your blog that enhance my knowledge and good example for my writing project..Do not stop sharing because you know very well every one need help for writing thesis and you writing is awesome...!